Sri Lanka is now more efficiently managing the immediate post war refugees in comparison to, say, mid 1999. In this case, the helpless refugees from Vanni and other close-by areas.

The government is making significant progress in this regard since the staggering 300000 (plus) refugee head count in 2009 May in the immediate aftermath of the final battle has now dramatically fallen. According to the Mr M.B.Dissanayake, Secretary of Resettlement Ministry, the refugee population in Nothern relief camps are just 17932 (6896 families-as of first week of November 2010).

Land-mines heavily scattered across the Northern regions have hampered the resettlement process, according to Mr Dissanayake. The government appears to implement measures / struggling  to avoid a new issue of ‘refugee Vs mines’ clash, that if takes place, could result in a silent but serious human catastrophe in these new settlements.

According to the military spokesman Major General Ubhaya Madawela, 314850 land mines have been removed from north. The military spokesman on October 21 added that some 1857 square kilometers in the North ‘had been cleared of mines with around 2000 more sq kms remaining to be cleared.’

The mines have delayed the resettlement of the nearly 300000 displaced since the end to the war.

It is very clear that barring the land mine issue, the resettlement of the remaining 6896 families could be completed in the due course.

Nevertheless, the Vanni resettlement issue appears to mask a crisis that looms bigger and one which we are largely pretending to not to be aware about- and it looms across international horizons.

Interestingly, a mere ten days before Major General Ubhaya Madawela’s announcement, Ms. Jennifer Pagonis, the UNHCR Deputy Representative in Sri Lanka, speaking to a national newspaper revealed a shocking fact-a total of 146,098 Sri Lankan refugees are now living in 64 countries, as per the latest UNHCR statistics!

This staggering total, most of who are (clearly) Tamils from Sri Lanka, are spread across 64 countries. However, India, France, Canada, Germany, UK, Switzerland, Malaysia, Australia, the United States and Italy are the top 10 countries hosting Sri Lankan refugees, according to UNHCR. 71% of our international refugees live in India, mostly in Tamil Nadu.

The worrisome factor is Ms Pagonis’ warning that ‘we have to be cautious of the refugee figures’ – an indication that these numbers could be even higher!

According to Ms Pagonis, UNHCR now recommends that asylum-seekers from Sri Lanka are no longer recognized as refugees solely on the basis of the “extended definition” (i.e. due to generalized violence). “Claims should instead be considered on the basis of a well-founded fear of being persecuted on one of the five grounds, political opinion, nationality, religion, race or membership of a particular social group” she adds.

The next refugee crisis is therefore looming across international horizons and is even more worrisome.

If these ‘international’ refugees decide to return to Sri Lanka-for which there is no real obstacles since as the war is over-the UNHCR’s streamlined method of processing can be adopted to accept them at the arrival gates of the immigration.

Unfortunately, this is only a start-not only that we cannot wash our hands off from the arriving refugees saying that ‘UNHCR will take care of it’ but Sri Lanka in unison will have to muster a strong policy platform to address this looming issue as its more than a refugee issue- it’s a crisis in re-integration.

Not all international refugees will return-a considerable number will still be better off as ‘refugees’ in the Western hemisphere rather than living in Sri Lanka with the so called ‘privileges’ of ‘full grade Sri Lankan citizenship’!

But what of the Lankan refugees in South Asian countries and in less developed countries such as those who are scattered in the African continent? They will invariably return to their homes (one way or the other) as the country’s three decade long war is no more.

Also, aggravating the situation is that possibility of refugee glut from the West itself-most of us are now familiar with statements of many a Lankan migrant in the West expressing their desire to return to Sri Lanka since the recession in the West is ‘not really over’ despite the international media stories boasting of new business cycles etc etc.

Thus, along with the government departments, NGOs, INGOs, political parties, community groupings and even the media will have to throw their weight behind formulating a set of practical policies of refugee reintegration that cuts across both domestic and international sectors of Sri Lankan refugees (and to implement it!) since National Integration / Reintegration is, clearly, not ‘someone else’s job!

What is in the mind of the returning refugee? The question of “What will I do after returning home?” and also the fears of assimilation. Also the issues of documentations, strengthening of basic economic structures such as markets, banking etc and security issues will need to be addressed. The returning refugees are not really heading for a fully furnished ‘home’ ready to welcome them with open arms-rather, upon arrival, they need find the resources and begin rebuilding their hut-often from scratch. Provision of food and non food relief items are essential-no doubt- but what exactly will make the returnee to feel re-integrated?

Perhaps the first step in welcoming the returning refugee is to expel any fears they harbor and show activity that will instill hope in them.

Any proposed reintegration policies and activism towards the returning refugee could be comprehensive and may involve reams and reams of resettlement maps / charts, graphs, financial budget spreadsheets, time schedules (etc), but all such will be utterly useless if the returnee is apprehensive and does find new hope upon his arrival. Also, often, part of the answer is also found among the returning refugees themselves. A significant number of returnees possess some newly acquired professional and vocational skills and these skills could be put to good use.

How can we proceed from here? A starting point could be the establishment of, say, a “Returning Refugee Reintegration Office” (RRRO) –a centralized mechanism which shall coordinate the returnees from the point of their arrival to final resettlement AND being able to be on their own.

The proposed RRRO will not be an exclusively ‘government only mechanism’ but could consist of representatives from the government, NGOs and INGOs (Eg: UNHCR, International Org. for Migration, etc), the private sector, livelihood and resettlement experts, and last but not least, some capable volunteers / representatives from the returning refugee sample itself.

To this end, return refugee priorities should first be identified by the proposed RRRO, followed by returnee capacity assessments.

Such capacity assessments should begin with rapid needs & capacity assessments on reintegration opportunities for returning refugees, followed by a profiling exercise that consists of identification of human resources, skills, training needs and assessment of existing capacity along with the rapid assessment findings, and development of an implementation strategy in line with the priorities identified by the RRRO.

The most important feature of the RRRO is that it should not be another ‘pie in the sky’ setup where everyone arrives for the meetings looking to ‘agree to disagree’. It should be an active partner in the overall reintegration scenario and should be made accountable for the progress it makes (or the lack of it!). Bi-weekly progress reviews is a must, with all the stakeholders chipping in. Such an RRRO will also facilitate the private sector to enlist in this national effort since the private sector, though it wants to help, has been taking a back-seat so far as there is no credible authority that the private sector can trust, in this regard.

The answer for the looming crisis across international horizon lies in our collective commitment to address it-no less.

As last Sunday’s (24) fire at the construction site of Norochcholai Coal Power Plant (NCPP) began to flash on the news headlines and later when the Police and Government Analysts began to probe the cause of the fire, there was near panic -especially within the power supply sector in the country.

The NCPP and more importantly, coal powered electricity, was suddenly in the spotlight.

The incident was sufficient to invoke panic-considering not only our power supply and demand dynamics-but more.

The main crisis faced by post war Sri Lanka is the power crisis.  At present, hydropower produces 37% of electricity and the deficit of 63% is from fuel. In addition, the power demand increases by 10%  each year.

Sri Lanka’s annual energy generation is around 9800 GWhours. Demand (at peak) is recorded at 1922 MW. Sri Lanka achieved 80% electrification by 2008 and its national energy policy is now geared to raise this to 95% by 2015.

A significant change in Sri Lanka’s power generation industry is the country which has been largely dependent on hydro power, is that it is now increasingly turning to thermal power generation such as diesel fuelled power-in 1986, 99.6% country’s electricity needs were met by hydro power. However, by 2008/9, it fell considerably to 50%!

Variations in seasonal rains, drought and increasing demand have contributed to the change in energy mix that goes into the national grid.

Under pressure by the demand-supply gap, private sector power suppliers were allowed to supply power to CEB from 1996 and at present, their participation has increased to almost one third of the total installed capacity in the country. However, the shortfall in demand/supply continued and future power demand forecasts began painting an increasingly gloomy picture.

Enter coal power!

Whatever the disadvantages of coal use, in the immediate future, Sri Lanka appears to have no viable alternatives other than coal based thermal power-and that too, will be needed in increasing measure.

According to CEB’s long-term power generation plans, in future, more than 88% of the country’s energy mix will be spearheaded by coal-the main reason being that Sri Lanka has exhausted most of its hydro electricity reserves and their potential. Sri Lanka plans to reduce dependence on hydroelectricity to a mere 20% by 2022.

Based on the ‘coal’ idea, two coal power plants were envisaged thereafter- Norochcholai Coal Power Plant (NCPP) and Trincomalee Coal Power Plant (TCPP).

The NCPP is Sri Lanka’s first ever coal power plant and has moved beyond planning stage. NCPP construction work began in 2006.

NCPP’s significance is not only its role in power generation-it’s the second largest national project after the Mahaweli Programme. NCPP’s approximate cost is US $455 mil and funds came from Exim Bank of China.

Upon completion, NCPP will add a volume of 1658 Gwh annually (at distribution levels) to the national grid. NCPP will produce 300MW of power annually in Stage I and in Stage II, 600 MWs (2 x 300MW). The 300MW is about 17% of the power demand.

Tests for Stage I will be commissioned in November as scheduled and production of first 300 MW for the national grid will kick off in 2011 January while Stage II is expected to be commissioned in 2012.

NCPP now stands 92% completed. Despite the recent fire damages, tests will start on November 17-and production will commence in January 2011.

The main challenge for N’choali may not lie in the environmental domain since clean coal strategies are now being developed globally. The fact that Power Minister (under whose domain NCPP falls) is also an environmentalist, and the fact that Sri Lanka is a low emission level country, suggest that thermal coal is not a huge worry for us.

However the issues are likely to be on coal prices and supply.

Despite the globally ‘great’ declarations of enough supply of coal for the whole world for the next 120 years, and the fall in global coal prices, coal supply will be a crucial fact for Sri Lanka’s future power sector.

It is projected that by 2020, global coal demand will outstrip supply (2020 Supply at 7542 metric tonnes, while projected demand at 7709m Mts).

Therefore, Sri Lanka will have to compete to receive its vital coal requirements. International coal prices are presently at low levels compared to 2008 August’s high-but the fall to current price levels are more to do with the recent global recession rather than any abundance in coal supply. Therefore there is no guarantee that we will have low coal import bills!

More importantly, Sri Lanka will have to contend with the additional chore of coal shipment import logistics since coal is not mined within the country -thereby hitting us with an extra burden unlike many other global coal consumer markets who mine their own coal.

Finally, coal is, by its very definition, a ‘dirty business’. If not managed well, health and environment hazards await the coal user.

Then why we still go for coal power?

Power Minister’s recent reply to a national English newspaper explains it: “…Of course there are other problems connected to coal power generation. But the issue is that we have no other source to meet our huge (power) demand. By injecting coal power to the national grid the CEB is in a position to supply cheap power to our consumers. Our main concern at the moment is that-reducing the electricity bill as soon as possible.”

This statement is also a clear indication of the reality of the cost constraints in our power sector. With the recent estimate of the annual increase in country’s demand for power at 8% mark, the high production cost scenario itself is grim and substantiates that ‘electricity power crisis’ will be an ongoing conflict for Sri Lanka.

It is here that N’Cholai becomes a crucial experiment-an experiment so vital that the success/failure of its ‘real coal fires’ will be a decisive factor for many macro national policies of post war Sri Lanka.

90% of world population now has mobile network access. And close to a quarter (23%) of the 8.3 billion world population has access to Internet, according to International Telecommunication Union (ITU).

Released on the eve of the first ever World Statistics Day (Wednesday October 20), “The World in 2010: ICT Facts and Figures” by ITU says that 90% of world population now has mobile network access (this, of course, does not mean that 90% ‘own’ a mobile phone-only that they have ‘access’ to mobile networks/coverage). ITU however warns ‘mobile cellular growth is slowing worldwide’. It adds that among the estimated 5.3 billion mobile subscriptions (by end 2010), 72% -that is 3.8 billion- will be from the developing world.  On the other hand, in the developed countries, growth in mobile sector has slowed ‘considerably’ during the past five years.

Data (‘SMSes’), rather than voice services (‘calls’) are leading the growth in mobile services with close to 200,000 text messages being sent every second-over the period of 2007 to end 2010, the global SMS volume stands at a ‘staggering 6.1 trillion’, said ITU. Average cost of an SMS is US $ 0.07 (SL Rs 8.00) and every second, Rs 1.5 million worth SMSes (US $ 14000) transmitted globally.

People are moving rapidly from 2G to 3G platforms, across globally and in 2010, 143 countries were offering 3G  commercially. ITU says that Sweden, Norway, Ukraine and the United States have started to offer services at even higher broadband speeds called as 4G, which is the next generation wireless platform.

ITU also reconfirms what many in the telecom industry across the world have already been subscribing to: “The ITU considers broadband as a catalyst for growth.”

ITU Secretary-General Hamadoun Touré adds: “Broadband is the next tipping point, the next truly transformational technology. It can generate jobs, drive growth and productivity, and underpin long-term economic competitiveness. It is also the most powerful tool that we have at our disposal in our race to meet the Millennium Development Goals.”

By the end of 2010, global fixed broadband ‘penetration’ will be 8% (though in developing countries it will be low: 4.4 subscriptions per 100 people compared to 24.6 in developed countries). One reason for the rapid increase in broadband connections is the high-bandwidth content and applications on the Internet.

As for internet use, ITU says that the global user base has doubled between 2005 and 2010, and by end of 2010, it will surpass the two billion mark, of which 1.2 billion will be in developing countries. “Some countries such as Estonia, Finland and Spain have declared access to the Internet as a legal right for citizens” ITU says and adds that 71% of the population in developed countries are online, but only 21% of the developing countries’ populace are online.” The world average for internet user penetration is 30%, in other words, half-a-billion, on a headcount.

According to the World Bank, Sri Lanka reports 1,163,500 internet users (by Sept. 2009) with a 5.5% internet penetration rate. The projection for 2010 is 8.3% (1,776,200). In contrast, mobile penetration is estimated to be 68%, with nine mobile operator firms-and growing: Are you getting this signal?

Saturday October 9 is World Post Day (WPD). As another WP-Day passes by in a modern internet/email/SMS era, some of us are wondering just where the closest post office is located-and have not handled a proper snail mail for months, except for the various bills that are delivered to our doors on time!

Our Postal Services needs to reinvent, if it is to survive. Perhaps taking this hint, Sri Lanka Post early this week made an announcement–we are now allowed to design and print our own stamps for use in snail mails/postal service. Confused?

Early this week, Minister of Posts Jeewan Kuarathunge declared that we can now design and print our own stamps to be used in snail mails/posts, thereby quietly opening a new chapter in the postal services and more importantly, new doors for the stamp enthusiast.

Before elaborating on this further, let’s briefly scan Sri Lanka’s Stamp & Postal history.

According to the Postal Department, Sri Lanka is the first to inaugurate a mail coach service in all of Asia-between Colombo & Kandy in 1832 followed by Colombo-Galle in 1838.  The Central Bank reports say that 70% of our post offices are sub post offices-our postal service consists of 4,738 post offices, of which 643 are main post offices, 3,411 sub post offices, 463 agency post offices, 156 rural agency postal offices and 156 estate post offices- in practice, this translates to a post office for every 14 km radius. The mail use is 21 letters per inhabitant but the Postal Services continue to make huge losses-Rs 2.1 billion losses in 2008 and 2.4 billion in 2009!

The first stamps for ‘Ceylon’ were issued on 1 April 1857-just 17 years after world’s first adhesive postage stamp ‘Penny Black’ was issued in Britain in 1840- while the first ‘Sri Lanka’ stamps came out in May 1972. The 1857’s first stamp was a purple-brown ‘imperforate’ which “Stanley Gibbons Catalogue” (the world leader in stamp collections) values at £7500 for an unused stamp (Rs. 1.33 mil). The annual demand for stamps is 345 million with stamp values ranging from 50 cents and to 1,000 rupees. The cost to print a stamp is Rs. 1.25. Among the 345 million stamps are 30 million high denomination stamps and 35 million commemorative stamps.

Since 1857, countless number of stamps has been issued by the Postal Department of Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka Post now employs more than 19000.

Who is the culprit responsible for decline in our postal services?

We tend to think that the main contributor for our postal services to go out of fashion is due to the rapid advances in mobile telephony and the internet in Sri Lanka-or even in US. However, recent news reports do not hold on to this belief.

According to these news reports, an interesting reason for the decline in use of snail mails in the US postal services is not mere emergence of web/emails and mobile sms gateways-the key culprit being the commercial Banks! In that, the Banks have increasingly switching to electronic payment systems instead of printed paper bills for all their utility bills, and this ‘switch’ has resulted in a steady decline of snail mails.

Nevertheless, the US Postal Service (USPS) has developed several innovative ways of overcoming its ‘potential obsolescence.’

For instance, the US postal service which has been using ‘bar codes’ for postal automation, has now introduced ‘Intelligent Mail’  (2009). The Intelligent Mail Bar Code (IMBC) will not only allow normal mails to be tracked just as we track DHL, UPS parcels, but also holds sender’s full contact info so that if there is an issue with regard to routing / delivery of the mail, the sender is notified immediately of ‘a possible delay’ and in case of an improper or undesirable package, the sender can be identified and be held responsible.

“Click ‘n’ Ship” is the other innovation by the US Postal Service. In “Click ‘n’ Ship”, the Web is leveraged. Using the net, the customer can find their postal rates, print out postage and even schedule a free pickup without ever having to stand in a queue of post office counter!

‘Automated Postal Centers’ are the recently introduced mini kiosks that do many automated actions for consumers -dispense stamps, issue ‘registered’ mail receipts etc- so that the they do not have to stand in postal counter queues.

Last but not least, the self issuable stamps in US- in that, the Stamps.com site prints citizen’s own commemorative stamps! By this, the US Postal Service is testing out its PhotoStamps concept, which lets consumers put their own ‘cute pictures’ on commemorative-size stamps by uploading their own choice of a photo to the stamps.com site (US only) and they can generate stamps designed by themselves-it is this “PhotoStamps” concept that our Minister of Posts was emphasizing early this week!

What is interesting is the technology adoption feasibility in Sri Lanka-none of the above mentioned new techs in US are ‘so costly’ for us-Sri Lanka is already connected to strong SEA-ME-WE internet backbone and everyone knows of the rapid developments in our IT and Telecom sectors, and thus, new technology adoption requirements are lesser. Neither the above mentioned new techs are costly by themselves-they mostly leverage the already existing power of the Web and in addition, demand a mere digital camera, which again is no such hassle. Sri Lanka Post will not face its challenge in these areas.

It’s real challenges however are likely from an entirely different direction—the Banks, electronic payment gateways and more importantly, public perception arena—in that, the acute image issue-the perception among the general public that ‘the Postal Services are now taking a backseat’ which is especially prevalent among the urban population demographics. If SL Post gears up and takes them with relevant strategies, soon the public can hear the postmen ringing again (perhaps digitally). And more importantly, SL Post could turn the billion rupee losses in to something more positive and thus, will be able to ring up its own curtain as well!

Dieting is the current social circuit topic and more importantly, a fact of life. Everyone is talking about being ‘on a diet’ (even if not) or thinking about ‘starting one soon’. And to maintain their figures, many young women say they are on a special diet—but in fact, most of these catwalk wannabe’s are quietly starving themselves, surviving on mineral water, gulping some cups of coffee or tea for the day with some fruits thrown in between-and facing ill health as a result.

Among the most talked three international diet regimes at present are the ‘5 Factor Diet’ and the ‘Detox Diet’-it’s the ‘third’ that we will look at in depth.

The 5 Factor Diet is not only a run for weight loss but a fitness program as well. It supposedly shows results in five weeks provided you eat five ‘healthy meals a day and follow five twenty five minute workouts per week’.

The Detox Diet is a dietary regime that will also hopefully detoxify you! Short term in nature, you are required to withdraw from eating out -i.e no fried rice & chicken Briyani, Chop Sueys or Pizzas-or even the hot Kottu! You are also not allowed to take dairy products. And you will be able to consume soya based food, fruits, and vegetables since they provide fibre and water.

Both 5 Factor Diet & Detox Diet as well as many other authoritative diet web sites, dieting systems (Eg: Atkin’s Diet) and books on dieting, readily recommend cutting back on flour, sugar and carbs,  followed by switching to more organics with green leaves etc.

All these diet systems are good-provided you can implement them in practice, but we cannot- due to our busy schedules, economic reasons and their impracticality to suit our lifestyles. The most important factor that make these diet systems less than effective (though they are not incorrect) is that their ‘one size fits all’ approach!  In that, they assume that standard dietary prescriptions could be applied to anyone and will bring good results equally to all. But, ‘everyone’ is not made the same and people differ–men/women folks, by age groups, ancestry (Asian/African…) and in a multitude of other biomarkers.

Let’s now look at the ‘third’ international diet regime that can cut across all of these and could practically help us-this is no less than the well kept ‘Hollywood Diet Secret’ for decades –dieting based on one’s blood type!

Blood type diet was quietly practiced by US celebrities for decades but it was elevated to food science levels when in 1996, Dr. Peter D’ Amato published “Eat right 4 your Type.”

We all know of the four main blood types (O, A, B, & AB) and by now, you almost probably know what your blood type is (According to medical science, in addition to these four, there are some rare blood types such as ‘RzRz’ for Alaskan Americans, ‘Jk’ for Pacific Islanders…and so on which are not important for this discussion). According to the Japanese, you blood type has a bearing on your personality.

Not only that the blood types have a bearing on one’s personality, but it can give better health if one can change your diet based on it. According to Dr. Peter D’Amato, who wrote the bestseller ‘Eat Right 4 Your Type’ “the knowledge that we can do something to change our genetic destiny is powerful.”

How should one go about consuming food –and even to lose weight- based on their blood type?

The blood type O populace, ‘the carnivores’, are the oldest blood type in the world, and are “very comfortable” with red meat and other meats. Not only that they should go for meaty high protein diets, being a vegetarian can make them weak, leaving them ‘always hungry’.  High endurance sports are the fastest way for them to lose weight.

If you are a blood type A person is the vegetarian, you need lots of carbohydrates and meat items are not for you. Vegetables are best for you if they are raw or steamed, rather than cooked. Also, dairy products may not fit you well. Combining a dieting programme to simple exercises –such as outdoor walks-is their fastest way to lose weight.

Blood type B is thought to have originated in Himalaya/Everest region and unlike O or B types, they need not only be either meat eaters or vegetarians but can balance their diets across the spectrum. More importantly, they are the only type that can enjoy dairy most (O, A and AB have differing restrictions on dairy-see chart). The bad news for B’s is that chicken is a definite no-no for them. Flour based foods and mixing pulses (various beans) with flour based food is the main reason for their weight gain. They should also avoid processed foods.

Blood type AB, the ‘lucky type’ can enjoy all the foods that A and B types can go for but equally becomes unlucky in a way since large number of prohibited foods for both A and B could equally weigh them down. Wheat is the main reason for their weight gain.

It should be stressed that the ‘rhesus’ of the blood (the ‘positive’ or ‘negative’ Eg: ‘O negative’ or ‘O positive’ type) do not really matter when it comes to blood type diets. What is considered is only your generic type-O/A/B or AB.

Though Dr. D’Amato’s approach has also been criticized as ‘not based on lab controlled experiments’, blood type diet systems are gaining an increasing following-and systems such as D’Amato’s have also been secretly followed by the Hollywood glitterati for decades. In fact, it is the blood type diet that worked (finally) for such Hollywood stars as Demi Moore, Cheryl Cole, Liz Hurley, Hugh Grant and Courteney Cox –all of them are now dedicated to this diet.

Can one’s blood type biomarker decide on their destiny? It may not. But the blood type food/dieting provides the much needed departure point for an otherwise ‘one size fits all’ recommendation approach evident in the dieting and weight loss health sector –a sector which is increasingly gaining importance in our lifestyles. If correctly practiced, blood type diet may hold the key to our desires for better health–if not to the greater understanding of our very survival.

The Aframax ‘SCF Baltica’ (117,000 dwt and ice class 1A-Super (Arc5), owned by the Sovcomflot (SCF) group, arrived at Ningbo on 6th September.  This successfully completing the tanker’s voyage transporting 70,000 tonnes of gas condensate (delivery from OAO Novatek), from Vitino and Murmansk, along the Northern Sea Route (NSR).

It took about 22 days for the ship to sail from Murmansk to Ningbo, which even taking into account that the voyage was experimental, meant it was twice as fast as the traditional routes for ships navigating via the Suez Canal, SCF said.

From 17th to 27th August, ‘SCF Baltica’ safely passed via the NSR from Cape Zhelaniya (Novaya Zemlya Island) to Cape Dezhnev, including technical anchorage at the port of Pevek.

She covered 2,500 nautical miles at an average speed of 10 knots.

The tanker sailed through the traditional shipping lanes of the NSR along rather shallow areas, including the Sannikov Strait. To pass through these areas safely, the tanker’s draught and speed were reduced.

In future, new high-latitude deep-sea routes, which are to the North of the Novosibirsk Islands, will allow the passage of ships with a draught of more than 15 m.

Sovcomflot’s senior executive vice-president Evgeny Ambrosov said: “Taking into account the results of the voyage, our experts at Sovcomflot, together with the structural units of Rosatom and Russia’s Ministry of Transport, will adjust the previous risk assessment related to navigating along the Northern Sea Route and the factors which are to be taken into account for future voyages.

“These include the voyages of an Arctic Panamax shuttle tanker of 70,000 dwt and ice class Arc6, and a Suezmax of 162,000 dwt and ice class Arc4, scheduled for 2011. The company is checking the possibilities of widening the time limits for Arctic navigation and increasing the quantity of cargo shipped,” he explained.

The tanker’s master Capt Alexander Nikiforov said, “The voyage went smoothly. In general, the weather conditions were favourable. A system of navigational safety measures for the passage of ‘SCF Baltica’, the largest ship to ever navigate along the Northern Sea Route, was applied in co-operation with the headquarters of maritime operations in the Western sector of the Arctic.

“The escort by nuclear-powered icebreakers was provided by FGUP Atomflot. The icebreakers escorted the tanker in the icy areas of the Laptev Sea and the East-Siberian Sea, where 90-100% of the surface is covered with ice some of which is more than two metres thick in certain places,” he said.

As you read this- right at this moment (September 1) , unknown to most of us, a historic journey is taking place -in the deadly, freezing seas of the Arctic. On August 30, a large tanker called SCF Baltica has crossed the once unimaginable Arctic Circle to deliver 70,000 tons of “gas extract” (condensate) all the way from Russia to China.

The first time a tanker or a ship of a considerable size has successfully crossed the ever frozen “Northern Sea Route” (NSR). NSR is known for centuries as the “Northeastern Passage” and dreamed by all major shippers ‘wanting to navigate it.’ The successful tanker SCF Baltica is now continuing towards its final destination ‘Ningbo Port’ in Zhejiang Province, China having passed the NSR and is expected to call at its discharge port ‘Ningbo’ someday in mid-September.Shipping & Logistics experts of Sri Lanka–over to you!

What really is NSR? For centuries, the “Northern Sea Route” (NSR) sea area has been a coveted shipping lane for operators in Europe and Russia but they could not cross it. NSR connects the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean on the side of Russian Arctic coast while to do the same using the presently used route will need a ship to cross Europe, the Mediterranean, Gulf and Saudi regions, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and China. The route was completely closed for outsiders after the 1917 Russian revolution and even when one is permitted, only parts of the NSR passage -and not the entire length- have been open (until now) to the shippers –and that too, for very limited periods of time in a year due to extreme weather conditions –not to mention the deadly floating ice blocks/mountains that can crush even the strongest of ships ‘like a sharp knife slicing into butter’.

The Colombo port however depends considerably on the non-South Asian carriers that cross from Melacca to Mediterranean and vice-versa, for its revenues. According to Ports & Aviation Deputy Minister Rohitha Abeygunawardena the 2010 net profit of the Colombo Port will ‘exceed Rs. One billion.’ It is clear that a considerable portion of it is from non-South Asian shipping lines –and these shippers would only be glad to switch to the “Northern Sea Route” (NSR) as it gradually becomes ‘more passable’ due to attractive time and cost savings. If the successful SCF Baltic tanker is to deliver its load in its usual convoy route, then it should start from Murmansk in Russia and then transit the Norwegian sea, English channel, the Gibraltar strait, the Suez Canal, Gulf of Aden, Colombo / Hambanthota port and from there continue to cross Melacca (Malaysia) strait, Singapore, South China sea, enter East China sea, then Zhousan region and finally to arrive at Ningbo Port in China! This current convoy route adds up to a distance of more than 13,000 miles (20,500 km) and around 40 days transit time, but the SCF tanker on the successful “Northern Sea Route” (NSR) will be completing it much sooner- in almost half the time and only 8,500 miles (13,700 km) to go.
But global warming has blessed the shippers with the solution. As a result of increasing temperature in the Arctic regions, deadly Ice caps along the NSR began thawing, and the prohibitive Arctic passage began to clear-somewhat. Still, shippers found cutting across parts of the stretch -even with the support of nuclear powered ice breakers-has been prohibitive (especially the ‘Vilkitsky Strait’ in the passage). But the success of the SCF Baltic tanker shows that the entire route is now open-finally.

What is important for us is not the reduction in time/distance or savings (etc) but the fact that the tanker conveniently skipped the entire convoy transit points-including the Port of Colombo!

Get the picture?

Colombo port was built first in 1870s. It locates right at the centre of Indian Ocean and handles 95% our total international trade. It is the host to more than 30 international shipping lines that cross the Indian Ocean regularly. It has been ranked 27th among the best 35 ports in the world. It annually handles a cargo tonnage of 30.9 million tons. It also deals with 15% of South Asia’s trans-shipment cargo. Between 200 to 300 ships call at Colombo port daily. At present, it is the only port equipped to handle containers in Sri Lanka. Right now, a large scale expansion project is also underway at a cost of US $ one billion to ‘dramatically increase capacity’—in that, a three-fold increase in its capacity so that it ‘will emerge as a mega hub’ in South Asia.

This is not to say that the arrival of ships to the port of Colombo will stop from tomorrow! This development can be classified as a long term threat on Sri Lanka’s centuries old shipping sector-but for now. One may also argue that shippers need to clear many shipping permits from Russian border control on the Arctic side. And also that even if European ships will stop coming to Colombo, South Asian ships will still continue to arrive keeping the port busy!

The post-war outlook of internet freedom in Sri Lanka is ‘not bright.’ In addition, Sri Lanka needs to take immediate steps to legislate for ‘broad privacy protection.’

An Internet Freedom of Expression (IFoE) study by Colombo based Centre for Policy Alternatives and Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die Freiheit –Colombo (FNST) released on August 2 calls Sri Lanka to take immediate steps to legislate for broad privacy protection . It also wants service providers to provide clear privacy policies.

According to Telecommunication Regulatory Commission of Sri Lanka (TRCSL), Sri Lanka now has 16 licensed ISPs. TRCSL says 249,756 internet and email subscribers are in the country (2009). Also, the country had only 150000 internet users in 2001. But according to the World Bank, Sri Lanka now reports a ten-fold increase of net users (to 1,163,500 by Sept. 2009) with a 5.5% internet penetration rate. The projection for 2010 is 8.3% (1,776,200). In contrast, mobile penetration is estimated to be 68%, with nine operators.

Interestingly, for the first time, the TRCSL has begun monitoring the quality of service (QoS) of the provision of Broadband internet services by Operators. The TRCSL uses a newly established Unit for this purpose. According to TRC, the ‘new Unit is equipped with apparatus to observe a wide variety of broadband services that includes ADSL, WiMAX and HSPA.’  The main purpose of this Unit is to keep ‘under surveillance the quality of broadband services encountered by subscribers in the country’.

In a way, this step is vital step in that, broadband operators have acquired the habit of hyping their capabilities in their promotions- for instance, LIRNEASIA has identified that the two top mobile broadband dongle providers (HSPA) can in reality, provide only 20% of the speed that they regularly claim to provide in their ads.

“Service providers need to provide clear and accessible privacy policies so consumers are informed of their privacy rights. Efforts to block websites and filter content have to be catalogued and published. There needs to be an independent third party who can monitor such moves and the implementation of any privacy policies” continues the CPA FNST in-depth study.  The report also stresses urgent need for strengthening the laws of the country on Internet FOE.

Though Sri Lankan law does not specifically target online content, Internet users have to operate within a ‘restrictive legal framework’, with (a) host of legislative provisions that currently limit freedom of expression, the study adds. Sri Lanka’s FOE canons are broadly dividable to two schemata as ‘general laws’ and ‘laws relating to national security. ‘But unlike in places like Australia, France and the UK where the proposed (monitoring) measures are announced publicly and debated vigorously, in Sri Lanka, “laws are made in a culture of secrecy, there is very little opportunity to meaningfully influence the law making process and worse often what is legal and permissible and what happens in reality are two different things.”Thus, it is possible for civil society to lobby law makers and regulators and actually impact the policy making process” the study stresses.

Delving on the gaping void in the right to privacy of Sri Lankan online users, the report says that there are no legislative provisions that protect general information gathering and handling. “Under the Roman Dutch common law of Sri Lanka the right to privacy is protected in specific instances. However there is no right to privacy under the Constitution of Sri Lanka. There are also no legislative provisions that protect general information gathering and handling. The Sri Lanka Telecommunications Act No. 25 of 1991 (As Amended) (Sri Lanka) and the Computer Crimes Act No 24 of 2007 (Sri Lanka) provides limited protection to Internet users from surveillance and other forms of intercepting communications. However both the Acts have provisions that allow law enforcement agencies and relevant Ministers to intercept communications without any apparent restrictions or guidelines on their general power to do so” the report adds.

Despite the continuous advances in mobile telephony tech, the broadband and internet infrastructure is still ‘underdeveloped’ in Sri Lanka. Further, as most of the users have to overcome their English language issues and even the Sinhala & Tamil Unicode interfaces in which one can read HTML pages in native language scripts/embedded fonts are still far from perfect, mass internet activism and advocacy has a long way to go in Sri Lanka. Nevertheless, if interpreted well, the CPA-FNST in-depth study could be used as a promising alternative point of entry to a domain which needs to be safeguarded-and safeguarded well.

Roads, the backbone of our transport sector, account for 92% of freight & passenger traffic in Sri Lanka. We have a total road network of around 100,000km. Of this, 11000 km are considered as national highways, classified as ‘Class A’ and ‘B’ categories. There are 25 motor vehicles per 100 persons (est.), with 21067 million passenger-km reported. The road density in Sri Lanka stood at 1.6 km of roads per every square km (2009) which is higher compared to that of other countries in the region, according to the Central Bank.

The current Colombo-Kandy trunk road, called as A1, was Sri Lanka’s first modern road. Taking 11 years to complete, it was endowed to us by the British in 1932.  The current distance between the two cities is 115km (72 miles) and the ‘A1’ stretch often results in severe traffic congestions, especially for oncoming traffic towards the capital.

Also, despite being a trunk road, it is often narrow, thereby preventing fast driving- in fact, in urban areas, the traffic on A1 slows down to less than 10kms an hour. Thus, an expressway has been mooted for some time, and now funds secured, plans drawn and baseline schedules are ready for a Colombo-Kandy Expressway (CKE).

What’s an expressway? An expressway is a cordoned off, spacious, multi-lane road restricted to vehicles (only) that are able to reach speeds of over 100 kmph. No bicycles, three wheelers/tuk-tuks, bullock carts, pedestrians, roadside ‘plain tea shops’ and stray puppies suddenly hopping to the front of your vehicle. The purpose of an expressway is to minimize the time needed to reach a destination-simply to get you from point A to point B. As a result, the access to the expressway is not ‘open’ like our roads-in that, both entry and exit points are ‘controlled’ and one cannot just enter or connect to the expressway from any spot choose (or even from a ‘by-lane’) as they wish. Also, a special set of driving signs are used in expressways. Instead of ‘junctions’, an expressway has ‘interchanges’. Interchanges are not mere junctions as seen in our roads. Traffic from various directions do not flow into the main junction at once and clog the expressway in an interchange. Instead, the roads flowing into the centre-point from other directions cut across each other above or below them in a ‘flyover style’, thereby ‘interchanging’ each other. These interchanges come in various ‘levels’ of bypassing the crossing roads/expressways –the levels being the number of other roads that fall above and below them in the interchange-sometimes four levels.

What is important to understand is that it is from these interchanges that the driver can get off the expressway-not just anyplace as we do now! Most importantly, expressways also have one additional feature: the toll gate! The drivers pay a usage fee when they enter and while on the expressway.

The CKE will be linking Colombo and central hill town of Kandy and will consist of four lanes initially, and later to be expanded to six lanes. The expressway will facilitate vehicle speeds of 110 km an hour. Its stretch is expected to be 98km and will reduce more than three hours’ current travel time down to 50 minutes. The expressway however, does not exactly terminate in the midst of both cities but will start a few kilometers away from them-from Colombo’s end, it starts at Kadawatha and at Kandy’s end, ends at Katugasthota. A challenge for the project manager is that the CKE is not limited to an ‘urban only’ setting. It cuts across both urban and rurals. But even more importantly, it is an expressway that elevates to 450+ metres (1500 ft) above sea level as it arrives at its last interchange, Katugasthota. It therefore effectively navigates the majority of the western slope of Sri Lanka.

Since there are issues in land acquisition for construction, the expressway will be built as an elevated expressway hosted on a concrete wire bridge ‘duct’, some parts of which could possibly be built on top of the current A1 stretch itself. The construction project is scheduled to span four years, and will be in two phases. According to the initial project plan, Phase I is 48.2 km in length (4 lane elevated) from Kadawatha to Ambepussa and will be expanded to six lanes later.  Phase II will be constructed from Ambepussa to Katugastota and 50+ km in length (4 lanes elevated). CKE will consist of 10 interchanges – Kadawata, Gampaha, Balabowa, Mirigama, Ambepussa, Dewalegama, Rambukkana, Hatharaliyadda, Hedeniya,and Katugastota. The traffic flow from Kurunegala will converge into the expressway at the Ambepussa interchange.

The new expressway, once completed, may not entirely be for ‘free use’ however. It will be a fee levying toll way, at least partially. According to Media Minister Kehaliya Rambukkwelle, at least in its first stretch, a toll will be implemented, even if the expressway is solely operated by the government and not as a Public Private Partnership (PPP). Usually, the toll rate of an expressway is decided on such factors as the project financing costs, repayment time of project loans, projected expressway traffic,  the level of technology used in the toll mechanism, and the cost of toll operations, future road maintenance costs etc. Different toll bases are used in different countries. For instance, in India, the toll rates are fixed by the government and it is inflation linked. The Indian expressway operator has no control over the toll rates. The practice of toll in other countries also shows that different vehicles are charged different fees per km (Eg: A passenger van is charged less than a container truck), and Sri Lanka’s case will be no different.

What could be the base toll rate? The planned toll rates for CKE are not known (or even not calculated yet), but if planned toll packages for the Southern expressway is any indication, then we can assume it to be between Rs. 3.00 to 5.00 per km (the toll package planned for the Southern Expressway takes a minimum charge of Rs.3.00 per kilometer. According to Ministry of Highways, the new toll system would be introduced to cover the highway construction expenses).

There is no doubt that the toll will help this expressway’s future and, is a necessity-just as the expressway itself. The toll will not only help self financing of the expressway in the long run thereby enabling its high standards of maintenance required, but will even reduce needless and extra vehicles taking to the road thereby clearing way for high speed travel. On the other hand, imagine this vital expressway being maintained by the various Pradeshiya Sabha’s (etc) along its stretch, based on their own road tax collections-what a nightmare!

What is important to understand is whether a Rs. 5.00 per/km rate will justify the Return on Investment (ROI) of the CKE. Despite Sri Lanka saying the CKE’s initial handler, the consortium of Malaysian firms (CML-MTD) was slow in construction and as a result the project was taken over from them, it is understood that the Malaysians simply pulled out since the revenue projections from toll earnings were unsatisfactory. However, as it stands now, the government will be operating the CKE on its own and will only implement a partial toll which is good news. But on the other hand, low revenue from a partial toll may not be sufficient in maintaining the CKE at real expressway standards, for it to be viable over the long term. If the CKE would not be maintained in that standards, then it is no longer an “expressway” but  just another trunk road.

Therefore, an unpopular suggestion needs to be made-that, the operator should charge the full toll required to cover the ROI within its given timeline. But how do we manage such a high toll?

A practical solution may be in the railways. In that, we know that a faster railway connection to Kandy too is a much needed solution. CKE brings in the tantalizing possibility of a combined ‘rail and highway’ to Kandy using CKE infrastructure itself. This is made possible by the elevated infrastructure, and it’s only a matter of widening the wire duct expanse to accommodate the railway, which will invariably be a passengers only ‘light railway’, preferably in dual track. Such a light track will enormously enhance the utility of the CKE since the rail stations could also be installed wherever the interchanges fail to serve the passenger traffic. More importantly, the revenue from this rail track could be used to a great extent to subsidize the expressway toll.

Then the only issue is to find a funder for the light railway. If the light rail revenue projections are good, then a PPP too could be implemented. Alternatively, we could easily surmise that possibly the Government of China can & also be willing to fund the construction.

Minister of Highways & Road Development-Over to you, Sir!

The dengue problem is reported across the country, but is mostly concentrated in the Districts of Colombo, Gampaha & Kandy.

Latest statistics show that in the period of January 1 to July 14 this year, 20647 cases of dengue have been reported. The number of deaths: 149!

There are no licenced vaccines at present against dengue and currently, there is also an ongoing effort to develop a dengue vaccine by Australian & Thai researchers (of Queensland University of Technology) but not before 2014.

And for a dengue vaccine to be effective, it needs to be tetravalent, meaning the vaccine should be strong enough to interact and manage four bacteria/viruses at once.
It is in this background that two indigenous ‘Herbal Ayurveda’ doctors and one ‘Metal Ayurveda doctor’ separately claimed two antidotes that appear to hit the nail on its head–lift blood platelet levels of dengue patients.
Both ‘cures’ are derived from common native fruits in the country. These are not total cures for dengue but essentially to get the patient across the most critical phase of the disease—that is, dangerously falling blood platelets stage, which if not treated, could be fatal.
The two ‘herbal Ayurveda doctors’ claim that Papaya leaf juice mixed with bee’s honey increases blood platelet levels and restores the patient. Dr. S.M.N. Ameen, attached to the Welipitiya Ayurveda Hospital (58 km south of Capital) said that Papaya leaf juice mixed with bees honey increases platelet levels and the mix has not shown any complications to the 20 Dengue patients he treated and who improved after the juice is given. An Ayurvedic Medical Superintendent Dr. W.K.M. Abeysekara, of Aparekka District Ayurveda Hospital (170 km south of capital) too claimed of the positive benefits of Papaya leaf juice & bee’s honey on dengue victims. However, there is a caveat: in that, what is less known is that the ‘papaya leaf juice cure’ for dengue patients is a common therapy widely used for years across South East Asia, especially in Thailand. Two raw papaya leaves are pounded, and they are squeezed with a cloth to strain and filter the juice. Usually, one leaf gives one tablespoonful of juice and two tablespoonfuls of p-juice is sufficient for a day. To preserve its strength, the juice should be taken raw, without altering, boiling or any additions. No saps nor stems of the papaya leaf should be included-only the leaf should be crushed. The powerful ‘Papain’ enzyme in the papaya leaf has the ability to dissolve proteins and is already used for indigestion and stomach inflammation while another enzyme from the papaya leaf, ‘Chymopapain’ is used successfully in spinal treatments.
The second antidote is also announced by no less than an Ayurvedic practitioner but specifically, a ‘Rasa Ayurveda’ doctor, according to a Sinhala language newspaper published in Colombo. ‘Rasa Ayurveda’ is a variant of the indigenous Ayurveda medicine and is not based on herbs but based on elements such as mercury and gold that are administered in minute dosages, according to Dr. R. Lalith Kularathne, who practices it from Ratmalana, (a southern suburb of Colombo). His prescription? Eat mangoes –minimum three times a day and drink three glasses of ‘white milk’ 750 ml each. He says that according to his observations, this mango and white milk treatment infuses the ‘acids’ and ‘alkaline’ contents that the body requires badly during the rainy seasons. Mangoes and white milk carry them ‘in plenty’.
Dr. Kularathne, has already ‘patented’ the methodology with the Registrar of Companies of Sri Lanka, according to him.
If scientific, independent medical tests of are positive on either of these ‘antidotes’ –or both-, and if Sri Lanka’s Drug Regulatory Authority too clears the way, then they can prevail. However, it is highly improbable that the herbal based papaya juice solution has not already been patented somewhere in South East Asia by now. This will clearly leave Dr. Kularathne on-stage with the challenge of proving the effectiveness of a mango-n-milk supplement that can withstand the deadly dengue show.
Perhaps it does not matter who prevails—so long as the cure cures, thereby shedding some light at the end of the tunnel for a helpless and weary country.